Water polo desperately needs to be made into a video game. It seems like the coolest sport to never get its own game. It’s got elements of hockey, basketball, soccer, and of course swimming. Such an exciting sport, which usually gets the shaft when it comes to NBC’s coverage – even though the Americans often do well.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):

The U.S. men came in sixth at the World Aquatics Championships in 2022. Despite that, they had the tournament’s leading scorer in Alex Bowen, with 21 goals. Is that enough for me to project them into the top three? Not yet. We’ll see how the championships go in July.

As for the women, the United States has to be the favorites, given their gold medal in Tokyo and four straight world championships. But you know how these events go. One bad day, and you’re playing for bronze. So, this is going to be one of those “have to have” gold medals for the medal race. I say they get it, but it’s going to be a fight.

Update (June 25, 2024):

Croatia, Italy, and Spain finished at the top of the men’s World Aquatics Championships, so I see no need to alter my medal projections there. But in the women’s championships, the United States had only a 5th-place finish, prompting me to drop them out of the gold medal spot and award that one to the world champions from the Netherlands. There are probably at least five teams with a shot at the gold medal, including the USA, so this is one that’s going to be hard to predict.

Projections:

Projected medal count:

Beach volleyball is one of my favorite sports to watch at the Olympics, simply because it makes for good TV. It helps that the USA usually has a gold medal contender. But it was indoor volleyball that made my best memory of the Tokyo Games. The USA won the gold at about 2 am on the East Coast, and I went to Facebook to celebrate, as that clinched the gold medals race for the Americans. In my slumber, I went to a Penn State group where I asked for a “We Are” for our two players on the USA team. I fell back to sleep, then woke up to over 1,000 likes and comments.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):

The United States are just on the outside looking in when it comes to the men’s indoor rankings. They sit in fifth, but Russia is in third, and they likely will not be invited to Paris. The margin between Italy and the U.S. is so minuscule that I’m going to give the Americans the nod for a medal. In the women’s rankings, it’s the U.S. and Italy both fighting it out with Brazil. Lurking, however, are the Chinese, who are in 5th at the moment.

Why am I favoring the U.S. and China when they’re lower in the rankings? Because there’s something about the Olympics that makes the heavyweights do better. Is it the Olympic Village, getting to be around other gold medal winners? Is it the fans? Is it something else? I’m not sure, but that’s the way it seems to go, so I’m going to bump the U.S. men and the Chinese women up a bit.

As for beach volleyball, I expect a showdown between Brazil and the U.S. in the women’s event, and a Scandinavian gold-medal game. The United States’ top men’s beach team is ranked 19th… a medal’s not happening.

It may not seem like it, but volleyball is a key sport to the medals race. Hear me out. When people talk about the Presidential election every four years, it’s always, “win Florida,” “win Ohio,” “win Pennsylvania,” etc. It’s similar here at the Games. If the U.S. can grab a couple of electoral votes – also known as gold medals – in volleyball, then the path to the medal count victory becomes a lot clearer. The thing the U.S. is lucky about is that the Chinese teams aren’t so powerful anymore. Xue Chen and Zhang Xi poised a great threat to the Americans back in 2012; now the highest-ranked Chinese team is 19th. So, if the U.S. doesn’t claim two golds – or if a Chinese team comes out of nowhere to win a gold – it spells doom for the medal chase.

Update (June 25, 2024):

No changes on the indoor front, but I’ve got a new leader in the men’s beach event. I’m keeping my women’s beach projections the same, but I’ll be rooting hard for Xue Chen, who became my favorite beach volleyballer in London. She’s ranked 9th; if her team shocks the world by knocking out an American team, it may be the difference in a very close gold medal race.

Projections:

Projected medal count:

I didn’t have any interest in this sport until I saw it in person at Atlanta in 1996. It was amazing! There had to be eight tables set up next to each other at the Georgia World Congress Center, and all these matches going on at once. The players would at times be 10 feet away from the table while in a rally. It’s one of those sports you have to see in person.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):

It’s time for China to flex their muscles. Maybe the USA will come away with four golds in basketball, but China can get those four back in table tennis – or maybe even all five. I’m going by the world rankings for my picks, but of course this can all change once qualifying gets going.

Sometimes you may watch NBC and wonder, “how in the heck is China ahead in gold medals when we aren’t seeing them win any?” And that’s because NBC refuses to show any of the events China dominates. Swimming, athletics, basketball, beach volleyball – all great sports, for sure. But China has its own strengths, and NBC purposely ignores them because they figure no one in America wants to see them.

Well, that’s where I come in. I like watching ALL the sports, and since 2008 I’ve tried to make sure I watch every single sport (although I think I missed the modern pentathlon in 2021). So while you’re watching a swimming heat that Katie Ledecky is winning by 10 seconds, I’ll be watching ping-pong and seeing China rack up the golds.

In Tokyo in 2021, Japan took full advantage of its home status, and they won four medals, including (shockingly) gold in the mixed doubles event. Funny how things work – if China wins that gold instead of silver, they end up breaking even with the United States in golds. So, you’ve got to hand it to Japan – their upset was enormous in its magnitude.

I wish there was still a doubles category, but looking at the schedule, you can see why they don’t have one – there’s simply no time for one. So, the team category replaces doubles just fine, although it would be cool if there were still a doubles category for each sex beyond mixed doubles. (Although that would probably put China over the top in golds.)

Now, as for predicting winners, I’m simply going with the world rankings. I’m sure these will change over time, but keep in mind that I’m *projecting*, not *predicting.* If I were predicting, I’d go with some upsets; but the goal here is to get the medal count as accurate as possible. Also, keep in mind the limits of entries into each category: only two singles entrants per sex are allowed per country, and only three per sex allowed overall (for the team event). That hurts China greatly, who has the top six women’s players in the world rankings. Why they can’t have three each for singles is beyond me, because they certainly do in track events. This also means the 4th-best women’s player in the world – at this moment, Wang Yidi – won’t even go to Paris.

Update (June 25, 2024):

China has an odd way of choosing its team for the Olympics, because at first I looked at it and saw no Chinese players in the field. Then I noticed that they had simply turned down an automatic berth from the Asian Championships and used a World Rankings quota. Japan will push them, but ultimately I’ve got to bet on China.

Projection:

Projected medal count:

This is an extremely underrated sport. Ice hockey may be better on television, but a field hockey game has more excitement and action than pretty much every single pro soccer game. Yet the scores aren’t sky high, and that’s something that works in field hockey’s advantage. It can deliver on the excitement while still being very low-scoring. Unfortunately, no man in America has ever played, seen, or even heard of field hockey, and as a result, it’s never on TV during the Olympics, unless the women’s team pulls off a miracle run.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Outlook (as of June 20, 2023):

I’m doing this too early, as the qualifying tournaments aren’t even close to getting started. However, I *can* base my picks off world rankings, and then change them as we get closer to the Games. Forgive me if I sound naive, but I don’t know anything about who’s good and who isn’t at field hockey. I can watch the sport and enjoy it, but I couldn’t tell you who is the best at it. I know India once ruled this sport, and that Pakistan used to be pretty good at it too. As for now? I’m just believing the world rankings.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count: