Most sports in the Olympics, I don’t have a clue who’s good and who isn’t other than from 1) world rankings or 2) world championships. Can you blame me? Handball is one of the best sports in the world, but for whatever reason it never caught on in America. I *love* this sport. I play the Handball 21 video game despite all of its flaws. Handball is awesome, and it should be more popular than soccer.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Men’s outlook (as of June 13, 2023):

My first response is to go with who won it last time. Then I go to the home nation. As it turns out, both are one and the same! France swept in Tokyo, so you’d figure they’d repeat in Paris.

But in the 2023 World Men’s Handball Championship, Denmark beat France for the gold. Otherwise, it was the same three teams winning the medals. So, do I go with the defending champs? Do I go with the home team? Do I go with the world champs? Well, as Meat Loaf said, two out of three ain’t bad.

2024 projections:

Women’s outlook (as of June 13, 2023):

These will most likely change after the World Women’s Handball Championship this December. For the moment, I’m going to project the same gold medalists, but some differences below.

Update (June 26, 2024):

I’m sticking with France as champions, but what with Norway winning the 2023 World Championship, I’ve bumped them up, and added 2022 European champion Denmark.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count:

Perhaps no team sport at the Olympics is as exciting as rugby sevens. If you like American football, you’ll love rugby sevens. It’s fast-paced with lots of action, hitting, nifty running, passing, and even some kicking. I’ve fallen in love with this sport thanks to the past two Olympics and Olympic video games.

Tokyo 2020 results:

2024 outlook (as of June 11, 2023):

It all comes down to New Zealand and Fiji. Those are the world powers in rugby, and it’s hard to pick one over the other. For that reason, I’m splitting the golds and silvers between the two. I may be wrong in all four slots, but I still think that Fiji will take home one gold and one silver, and so will New Zealand.

How about the bronzes? Great Britain, in my mind, is the biggest threat; they finished fourth in both tournaments two years ago. France may make a run at home, and the United States is a slight contender. Ultimately, my projections don’t look all that different from last time’s.

Update (June 25, 2024):

It looks as if Great Britain’s men’s team has fallen off a bit in the World Rugby Series. Therefore, I’m going to change my bronze medal pick over to Argentina. In the women’s tournament, Fiji’s fallen off a bit, so I’m going to bump up France and add in Australia. Sorry, USA, I want you to win, but the competition’s just too fierce.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count:

Don’t get me wrong; I like soccer. But I feel there are ways to make the sport better. The number one change I’d make is eliminating penalty kick shootouts deciding elimination matches. Make it “golden goal” extra time, sudden-death overtime, whatever you want to call it. Only one goal is scored in extra time, and the team that scores it is the winner. Why not? After all, ice hockey has the best overtime in all of sports. You hold your breath for 20 minutes, exhale for a few, then hold it again as double overtime begins.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Men’s outlook (as of June 11, 2023):

Remember: the men’s soccer tournament at the Olympics is under-23 plus three players over 23. As I write this, only three nations have officially qualified – France, the Dominican Republic, and the United States. That’s what makes picking this so hard. I’ll have a better knowledge of it come mid-July, after Europe and Africa have qualified three teams each. For now, though, I’m going to bet big on France, since they’re at home, they’re already in, and they’re always good.

Update (June 25, 2024):

Brazil apparently did not qualify. That gives the USA a real shot at getting a bronze, which would be amazing for soccer in this country. But I know better than to pin my hopes on USA Soccer! Instead, I’ll bet on a South American team to join France and Spain on the podium.

2024 projections:

Women’s 2024 outlook (as of June 11, 2023):

The United States have won four gold medals, but none since 2012. They’re already qualified for Paris, though, and they’ll be heavy favorites, likely coming off a massive World Cup win. If they don’t win the World Cup… then I’m still picking them. Unlike with the men, the women’s Olympic event is still a big deal, and I wouldn’t doubt the USA’s ability to focus in on winning a tournament that could bring even more attention to women’s sports.

Update (June 25, 2024):

Looks like the World Cup didn’t turn out to be all roses for the USWNT. That’s okay, though, because it only fuels the fire for Paris. The USWNT has something to prove. They are out for revenge. Thus, my prediction isn’t changing, but rather staying the same.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count:

There’s no gold medal I want more each Olympics than the men’s one. When the USA men won it in Tokyo, I was beyond elated. Why? Because this is a thankless job the men do. They are expected to win gold, and if they don’t, they get ridiculed at home. Only gold is enough, which brings us back to the purpose of this site. When gold medals are the “ahem” *gold* standard, that’s the only thing that’s going to satisfy both me and all NBA fans.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Men’s outlook (June 10, 2023):

1936. 1948. 1952. 1956. 1960. 1964. 1968. 1972*. 1976. 1984. 1992. 1996. 2000. 2008. 2012. 2016. 2020.

That’s the list of gold medals by the USA men. Quite frankly, that’s not enough, in my mind. They were robbed in 1972 by corrupt Cold War referees and officials. That’s why I list 1972 amongst their victories.

Unless the USA men either don’t qualify (very unlikely) or end up with a bunch of injuries that waters down the roster (very possible), then USA will be the favorite in Paris. However, France is extremely dangerous. They beat USA in their first game in Tokyo, before losing the gold-medal game to them. And with Victor Wembanyama on the rise, I’d pencil France into that gold medal game right now. Obviously, things could shake out funny in the bracket, and USA and France could meet in the semifinals, but right now it’s a two-team race for gold.

As for bronze, it’s either Luka Doncic for Slovenia or Nikola Jokic for Serbia. Spain and Australia will remain contenders too, but I’m betting on the Doncic-Jokic duo to get into the bronze-medal game.

Projection:

Women’s outlook (June 10, 2023):

The USA women haven’t lost since 1992. I mean, period. Not just lose the gold medal. They haven’t lost a single game since 1992, when they took home the bronze. And with the rise of the WNBA and the renewed interest in the women’s game, it’s hard for me to see anyone else winning gold, or even beating USA once.

As for other medals, France won bronze in Tokyo. I say the home-court advantage boosts them to another medal. Japan won silver at home, for example. Spain and Serbia both went 3-0 in the group stage last time, but neither medaled. I’m going with one of them as the third-place finisher.

Projection:

3×3 outlook (June 10, 2023):

The USA’s two teams lost a combined two games in the FIBA 3×3 World Cup. That sounds good for future competition. Man, just put LeBron James on a 3×3 team and you’ve got an automatic gold medal! Seriously, why not? In any case, I’m very bullish on USA’s basketball chances. This is one where I can see the USA completely sweeping all four basketball gold medals… which might be a necessity to win the golds race over China.

Men’s 3×3 Projection:

Women’s 3×3 Projection:

Overall medal count: