Projecting the medal count for Milano Cortina 2026
So, I tried this experiment two years ago and had varying levels of success. The goal? Project how many medals each nation wins at the Olympics. And while it may be a little closer to torch time this time around, I’ve still decided to do it again, on a reduced basis. I don’t have time to make pages for every sport, so I’m including everything on this one page. Feel free to seek through it for what you want to find.
This is not meant to be a pure prediction, it’s meant more to be a projection, to figure out how many medals each country will get. It is going to have inaccuracies, whether it comes to who’s participating and who’s qualified. I should have started on this a long time before I did, because I’m rushing to get this finished in time. Anyway, you’ll find mistakes, I’m sure, but this is a general guess as to how many medals to expect from each nation. Also, I think I skipped three events or so, which I’m not sure about which ones they are. I apologize to those athletes who I’ve left out because my counting was off and I forgot to include those few events.
| Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| United States | 13 | 17 | 13 | 43 |
| Norway | 11 | 13 | 9 | 33 |
| France | 10 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| Canada | 10 | 5 | 9 | 24 |
| Italy | 8 | 14 | 12 | 34 |
| Germany | 8 | 7 | 7 | 22 |
| Netherlands | 7 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| Switzerland | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| China | 6 | 5 | 6 | 17 |
| Japan | 5 | 9 | 7 | 21 |
| Sweden | 5 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| Australia | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| Great Britain | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| South Korea | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Austria | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 |
| Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| New Zealand | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| Finland | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Belgium | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Brazil | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Czechia | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Poland | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Latvia | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ukraine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Kazakhstan | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Event | Gold | Silver | Bronze |
| Men’s ice hockey | Canada (CAN) | United States (USA) | Finland (FIN) |
| Women’s ice hockey | United States (USA) | Canada (CAN) | Czechia (CZE) |
| Men’s curling | Canada (CAN) | Great Britain (GBR) | Switzerland (SUI) |
| Women’s curling | Switzerland (SUI) | China (CHN) | Canada (CAN) |
| Mixed doubles curling | Great Britain (GBR) | Canada (CAN) | Italy (ITA) |
| Men’s figure skating | Ilia Malinin (USA) | Yuma Kagiyama (JPN) | Mikhail Shaidorov (KAZ) |
| Women’s figure skating | Kaori Sakamoto (JPN) | Amber Glenn (USA) | Alysa Liu (USA) |
| Pairs figure skating | Sara Conti/Niccolo Macii (ITA) | Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara (JPN) | Minerva Fabienne Hase/Nikita Volodin (GER) |
| Ice dance figure skating | Madison Chock/Evan Bates (USA) | Pipe Gilles/Paul Poirier (CAN) | Olivia Smart/Tim Dieck (ESP) |
| Team figure skating | United States (USA) | Japan (JPN) | Italy (ITA) |
| Men’s 4-man bobsleigh | Germany (GER) | Germany (GER) | Great Britain (GBR) |
| 2-woman bobsleigh | Germany (GER) | United States (USA) | Germany (GER) |
| Women’s monobob | Laura Nolte (GER) | Bree Walker (AUS) | Kaillie Armbruster Humphries (USA) |
| Men’s skeleton | Matt Weston (GBR) | Zheng Yi (CHN) | Axel Jungk (GER) |
| Women’s skeleton | Kim Meylemans (BEL) | Jacqueline Pfeifer (GER) | Tabitha Stoecker (GBR) |
| Mixed team skeleton | Great Britain (GBR) | Germany (GER) | United States (USA) |
| Men’s singles luge | Felix Loch (GER) | Jonas Muller (AUT) | Max Langenhan (GER) |
| Men’s doubles luge | Tobias Wendl/Tobias Arlt (GER) | Martins Bots/Roberts Plume (LAT) | Ivan Nagler/Fabian Malleier (ITA) |
| Women’s singles luge | Julia Taubitz (GER) | Summer Britcher (USA) | Lisa Schulte (AUT) |
| Women’s doubles luge | Selina Egle/Lara Michaela Kipp (AUT) | Dajana Eitberger/Magdalena Matschina (GER) | Andrea Votter/Marion Oberhoffer (ITA) |
| Relay luge | Germany (GER) | Austria (AUT) | Italy (ITA) |
| Men’s halfpipe snowboarding | Ruka Hirano (JPN) | Scotty James (AUS) | Yuto Totsuka (JPN) |
| Women’s halfpipe snowboarding | Gaon Choi (KOR) | Chloe Kim (USA) | Sena Tomita (JPN) |
| Men’s big air snowboarding | Taiga Hasegawa (JPN) | Yiming Su (CHN) | Ryoma Kimata (JPN) |
| Women’s big air snowboarding | Eileen Gu (CHN) | Anna Gasser (AUT) | Kokomo Murase (JPN) |
| Men’s slopestyle snowboarding | Yiming Su (CHN) | Dane Menzies (NZL) | Laim Brearley (CAN) |
| Women’s slopestyle snowboarding | Eileen Gu (CHN) | Zoi Sadowski-Synnott (NZL) | Mari Fukada (JPN) |
| Men’s snowboard cross | Adam Lambert (AUS) | Jonas Chollet (FRA) | Eliot Grondin (CAN) |
| Women’s snowboard cross | Charlotte Bankes (GBR) | Josie Baff (AUS) | Michela Moiloi (ITA) |
| Team snowboard cross | France (FRA) | Italy (ITA) | Australia (AUS) |
| Men’s PGS snowboarding | Roland Fischnaller (ITA) | Benjamin Karl (AUT) | Aaron March (ITA) |
| Women’s PGS snowboarding | Tsubaki Miki (JPN) | Elisa Caffont (ITA) | Sabine Payer (AUT) |
| Men’s ski mountaineering | Remi Bonnet (SUI) | Maximilien Drion Du Chapois (BEL) | Oriol Cardona Coll (ESP) |
| Women’s ski mountaineering | Margot Ravinel (FRA) | Giulia Murada (ITA) | Emily Harrop (FRA) |
| Mixed team ski mountaineering | Italy (ITA) | France (FRA) | United States (USA) |
| Men’s ski jumping | Domen Prevc (SLO) | Ryoyu Kobayashi (JPN) | Ren Nikaido (JPN) |
| Women’s ski jumping | Nika Prevc (SLO) | Nozomi Maruyama (JPN) | Anna Odine Stroem (NOR) |
| Men’s team ski jumping | Japan (JPN) | Slovenia (SLO) | Austria (AUT) |
| Mixed team ski jumping | Slovenia (SLO) | Japan (JPN) | Austria (AUT) |
| Men’s 500m speed skating | Jordan Stolz (USA) | Damian Zurek (POL) | Jenning De Boo (NED) |
| Men’s 1000m speed skating | Jordan Stolz (USA) | Jenning De Boo (NED) | Damian Zurek (POL) |
| Men’s 1500m speed skating | Jordan Stolz (USA) | Zhongyan Ning (CHN) | Kjeld Nuis (NED) |
| Men’s 5000m speed skating | Metodej Jilek (CZE) | Sander Eitrem (NOR) | Timothy Loubineaud (FRA) |
| Men’s 10000m speed skating | Timothy Loubineaud (FRA) | Sander Eitrem (NOR) | Metodej Jilek (CZE) |
| Men’s mass start speed skating | Andrea Giovannini (ITA) | Jorrit Bergsma (NED) | Bart Swings (BEL) |
| Men’s team pursuit speed skating | United States (USA) | Netherlands (NED) | Italy (ITA) |
| Women’s 500m speed skating | Femke Kok (NED) | Erin Jackson (USA) | Kaja Ziomek-Nogal (POL) |
| Women’s 1000m speed skating | Jutta Leerdam (NED) | Femke Kok (NED) | Brittany Bowe (USA) |
| Women’s 1500m speed skating | Joy Beune (NED) | Antoinette Rijpma-De Jong (NED) | Miho Takagi (JPN) |
| Women’s 3000m speed skating | Joy Beune (NED) | Ragne Wiklund (NOR) | Isabelle Weidemann (CAN) |
| Women’s 5000m speed skating | Ragne Wilkund (NOR) | Valerie Maltais (CAN) | Joy Beune (NED) |
| Women’s mass start speed skating | Marijke Groenewoud (NED) | Mia Manganello (USA) | Valerie Maltais (CAN) |
| Women’s team pursuit speed skating | Canada (CAN) | Japan (JPN) | Netherlands (NED) |
| Men’s 500m short track | William Dandjinou (CAN) | Pietro Sighel (ITA) | Steven Dubois (CAN) |
| Men’s 1000m short track | Pietro Sighel (ITA) | Jongun Rim (KOR) | Shaoang Liu (CHN) |
| Men’s 1500m short track | William Dandjinou (CAN) | Thomas Nadalini (ITA) | Long Sun (CHN) |
| Men’s 5000m relay short track | South Korea (KOR) | China (CHN) | Italy (ITA) |
| Women’s 500m short track | Xandra Velzeboer (NED) | Corinne Stoddard (USA) | Courtney Sarault (CAN) |
| Women’s 1000m short track | Courtney Sarault (CAN) | Corinne Stoddard (USA) | Hanne Desmet (BEL) |
| Women’s 1500m short track | Gilli Kim (KOR) | Minjeong Choi (KOR) | Courtney Sarault (CAN) |
| Women’s 3000m relay short track | South Korea (KOR) | Netherlands (NED) | Canada (CAN) |
| Mixed 2000m relay short track | Netherlands (NED) | South Korea (KOR) | China (CHN) |
| Men’s moguls | Mikael Kingsbury (CAN) | Ikuma Horishima (JPN) | Walter Wallberg (SWE) |
| Women’s moguls | Jakara Anthony (AUS) | Jaelin Kauf (USA) | Olivia Giaccio (USA) |
| Men’s dual moguls | Mikael Kingsbury (CAN) | Ikuma Horishima (JPN) | Nick Page (USA) |
| Women’s dual moguls | Jakara Anthony (AUS) | Jaelin Kauf (USA) | Hannah Soar (USA) |
| Men’s aerials | Jiaxu Sun (CHN) | Dmytro Kotovskyi (UKR) | Tianma Li (CHN) |
| Women’s aerials | Mengtao Xu (CHN) | Fanyu Kong (CHN) | Laura Peel (AUS) |
| Mixed aerials | China (CHN) | United States (USA) | Australia (AUS) |
| Men’s halfpipe skiing | Finley Melville Ives (NZL) | Alex Ferreira (USA) | Nick Goepper (USA) |
| Women’s halfpipe skiing | Eileen Gu (CHN) | Zoe Atkin (GBR) | Fanghui Li (CHN) |
| Men’s slopestyle skiing | Birk Ruud (NOR) | Mac Forehand (USA) | Sebastian Schjerve (NOR) |
| Women’s slopestyle skiing | Mathilde Gremaud (SUI) | Megan Oldham (CAN) | Eileen Gu (CHN) |
| Men’s big air skiing | Luca Harrington (AUS) | Troy Podmilsak (USA) | Ulrik Samnoey (NOR) |
| Women’s big air skiing | Naomi Urnes (CAN) | Kirsty Muir (GBR) | Anni Karava (FIN) |
| Men’s ski cross | Reece Howden (CAN) | Simone Deromedis (ITA) | Florian Wilmsmann (GER) |
| Women’s ski cross | Sandra Naeslund (SWE) | Daniela Maier (GER) | Marielle Berger Sabbatel (FRA) |
| Men’s downhill | Marco Odermatt (SUI) | Franjo Von Allmen (SUI) | Dominik Paris (ITA) |
| Women’s downhill | Emma Aicher (GER) | Sofia Goggia (ITA) | Kira Weidle-Winklemann (GER) |
| Men’s slalom | Lucas Pinheiro Braathen (BRA) | Atle Lie McGrath (NOR) | Clement Noel (FRA) |
| Women’s slalom | Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) | Camille Rast (SUI) | Katharina Truppe (AUT) |
| Men’s giant slalom | Marco Odermatt (SUI) | Lucas Pinheiro Braathen (BRA) | Stefan Brennsteiner (AUT) |
| Women’s giant slalom | Julia Scheib (AUT) | Mikaela Shiffrin (USA) | Camille Rast (SUI) |
| Men’s Super-G | Vincent Kriechmayr (AUT) | Giovanni Franzoni (ITA) | Marco Odermatt (SUI) |
| Women’s Super-G | Sofia Goggia (ITA) | Alice Robinson (NZL) | Romane Miradoli (FRA) |
| Men’s team combined | Switzerland (SUI) | Italy (ITA) | Austria (AUT) |
| Women’s team combined | United States (USA) | Italy (ITA) | Switzerland (SUI) |
| Men’s 10km sprint biathlon | Tommaso Giacomel (ITA) | Sebastian Samuelsson (SWE) | Eric Perrot (FRA) |
| Men’s 20km individual biathlon | Eric Perrot (FRA) | Johan-Olav Botn (NOR) | Emilien Jacquelin (FRA) |
| Men’s 12.5km pursuit biathlon | Tommaso Giacomel (ITA) | Eric Perrot (FRA) | Johannes Dale-Skjevdal (NOR) |
| Men’s 15km mass start biathlon | Eric Perrot (FRA) | Tommaso Giacomel (ITA) | Campbell Wright (USA) |
| Men’s 4×7.5km relay biathlon | Norway (NOR) | France (FRA) | Sweden (SWE) |
| Women’s 7.5km sprint biathlon | Lou Jeanmonnot (FRA) | Suvi Minkkinen (FIN) | Hanna Oeberg (SWE) |
| Women’s 15km individual biathlon | Lou Jeanmonnot (FRA) | Dorothea Wierer (ITA) | Anna Magnusson (SWE) |
| Women’s 10km pursuit biathlon | Suvi Minkkinen (FIN) | Lou Jeanmonnot (FRA) | Elvira Oeberg (SWE) |
| Women’s 12.5km mass start biathlon | Lou Jeanmonnot (FRA) | Julia Simon (FRA) | Maren Kirkeeide (NOR) |
| Women’s 4x6m relay biathlon | France (FRA) | Norway (NOR) | Italy (ITA) |
| Mixed 4x6m relay biathlon | France (FRA) | Norway (NOR) | Sweden (SWE) |
| Individual large hill nordic combined | Jens Luraas Oftebro (NOR) | Julian Schmid (GER) | Stefan Rettenegger (AUT) |
| Individual normal hill nordic combined | Johannes Lamparter (AUT) | Einar Luraas Oftebro (NOR) | Thomas Rettenegger (AUT) |
| Team sprint nordic combined | Norway (NOR) | Austria (AUT) | Germany (GER) |
| Men’s 10km freestyle XC | Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo (NOR) | Harald Oestberg Amundsen (NOR) | Elia Barp (ITA) |
| Women’s 10km freestyle XC | Jessie Diggins (USA) | Moa Ilar (SWE) | Karoline Simpson-Larsen (NOR) |
| Men’s 50km classical mass start | Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo (NOR) | Federico Pellegrino (ITA) | Harald Oestberg Amundsen (NOR) |
| Women’s 50km classical mass start | Moa Ilar (SWE) | Jessie Diggins (USA) | Teresa Stadlober (AUT) |
| Men’s individual sprint XC | Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo (NOR) | Oskar Opstad Vike (NOR) | Ben Ogden (USA) |
| Women’s individual sprint XC | Maja Dahlqvist (SWE) | Nadine Faehndrich (SUI) | Jasmi Joensuu (FIN) |
| Men’s skiathlon | Johannes Hoesflot Klaebo (NOR) | Harald Oestberg Amundsen (NOR) | Oskar Opstad Vike (NOR) |
| Women’s skiathlon | Jessie Diggins (USA) | Moa Ilar (SWE) | Teresa Stadlober (AUT) |
| Men’s 4×7.5km relay XC | Norway (NOR) | Italy (ITA) | United States (USA) |
| Women’s 4×7.5km relay XC | Sweden (SWE) | Norway (NOR) | United States (USA) |
| Men’s team sprint XC | Norway (NOR) | Italy (ITA) | Finland (FIN) |
| Women’s team sprint XC | Sweden (SWE) | Norway (NOR) | Finland (FIN) |
Tommy A. Phillips 