Remember when tennis wasn’t supposed to be an Olympic sport, and the players didn’t care about it? Then came London 2012 and Wimbledon, and suddenly it became cool. This time, they’ll be playing from Roland Garros. So, basically, a second French Open. This isn’t a bad thing, it’s a great thing! What an awesome way to give the Olympic tournament more credibility, by playing it on a Grand Slam course! Yeah, that means they’ll be playing there twice in one year, but it’ll be well worth it.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Medal	Men’s singles	Country
Gold	Alexander Zverev	Germany
Silver	Karen Khachanov	Russia
Bronze	Pablo Carreno Busta	Spain
Medal	Men’s doubles	Country
Gold	Nikola Mektic Mate Pavic	Croatia
Silver	Marin Cilic Ivan Dodig	Croatia
Bronze	Marcus Daniell Michael Venus	New Zealand
Medal	Women’s singles	Country
Gold	Belinda Bencic	Switzerland
Silver	Marketa Vondrousova	Czech Republic
Bronze	Elina Svitolina	Ukraine
Medal	Women’s doubles	Country
Gold	Barbora Krejcikova Katerina Siniakova	Czech Republic
Silver	Belinda Bencic Viktorija Golubic	Switzerland
Bronze	Laura Pigossi Luisa Stefani	Brazil
Medal	Mixed doubles	Country
Gold	Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Andrey Rublev	Russia
Silver	Elena Vesnina Aslan Karatsev	Russia
Bronze	Ashleigh Barty John Peers	Australia

Update (June 25, 2024):

So, anything change in the world of tennis lately?

Yeah, a lot. Any other year I’d bet the house on Rafael Nadal, but now I’m not sure I’d even bet my bathroom. He is near retirement and very banged-up. As much as I’d love to see him go out with another gold medal, I just don’t think he’s going to do it. He will make an emotional farewell, and his competitive career will end shortly afterward.

Women’s outlook (as of June 22, 2023):

With Serena Williams retired, and Russian and Belarusian players in limbo, it’s almost impossible to figure out who’s going to win here. Will an American come out of nowhere to win the gold? It could happen, but I don’t want to project a gold medal there. The reason being, it’s not very likely, and I’m already forecasting two golds for the U.S. It’d also make the American total look a lot more comfortable than it actually is. If we’re doing projections here – not necessarily predictions – we’ve got to play it safe. So, I’m only giving the USA two gold medals, meaning that any more than two golds means that the United States will gain ground in the standings.

For doubles projections, keep in mind that at this moment, I have absolutely no idea who the doubles teams will be. I’m just going off world rankings and only picking teams from the same country. In this case, fate smiles on the Americans, who get a gold from Coco – who may win multiple medals in Paris.

Update (June 25, 2024):

Iga Swiatek is the clear favorite at this point. I am predicting one Russia/Belarus athlete to win a medal; you have to figure that they’re going to win something at some point to make some kind of controversy. As for mixed doubles, the teams have not been named yet, so I’m just making guesses there.

Projections for Paris 2024:

Medal	Men’s singles	Country
Gold	Carlos Alcaraz	Spain
Silver	Novak Djokovic	Serbia
Bronze	Jannik Sinner	Italy
Medal	Men’s doubles	Country
Gold	Marcel Granollers Pablo Carreno Busta	Spain
Silver	Rajeev Ram Austin Krajicek	United States
Bronze	Matthew Ebden John Peers	Australia
Medal	Women’s singles	Country
Gold	Iga Swiatek	Poland
Silver	Aryna Sabalenka	INA*
Bronze	Coco Gauff	United States
Medal	Women’s doubles	Country
Gold	Jessica Pegula Coco Gauff	United States
Silver	Marketa Vondrousova Karolia Muchova	Czech Republic
Bronze	Danielle Collins Desirae Krawczyk	United States
Medal	Mixed doubles	Country
Gold	Jessica Pegula Austin Krajicek	United States
Silver	Demi Schuurs Jean-Julien Rojer	Netherlands
Bronze	Elixane Lechemia Albano Olivetti	France

*Individual Neutral Athletes, or in other words, Russia + Belarus.

Projected medal count:

Country	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
United States	2	1	2	5
Spain	2	0	0	2
Poland	1	0	0	1
Czech Republic	0	1	0	1
INA	0	1	0	1
Netherlands	0	1	0	1
Serbia	0	1	0	1
Australia	0	0	1	1
France	0	0	1	1
Japan	0	0	1	1

Water polo desperately needs to be made into a video game. It seems like the coolest sport to never get its own game. It’s got elements of hockey, basketball, soccer, and of course swimming. Such an exciting sport, which usually gets the shaft when it comes to NBC’s coverage – even though the Americans often do well.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Medal	Men’s
Gold	Serbia
Silver	Greece
Bronze	Hungary
Medal	Women’s
Gold	United States
Silver	Spain
Bronze	Hungary

Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):

The U.S. men came in sixth at the World Aquatics Championships in 2022. Despite that, they had the tournament’s leading scorer in Alex Bowen, with 21 goals. Is that enough for me to project them into the top three? Not yet. We’ll see how the championships go in July.

As for the women, the United States has to be the favorites, given their gold medal in Tokyo and four straight world championships. But you know how these events go. One bad day, and you’re playing for bronze. So, this is going to be one of those “have to have” gold medals for the medal race. I say they get it, but it’s going to be a fight.

Update (June 25, 2024):

Croatia, Italy, and Spain finished at the top of the men’s World Aquatics Championships, so I see no need to alter my medal projections there. But in the women’s championships, the United States had only a 5th-place finish, prompting me to drop them out of the gold medal spot and award that one to the world champions from the Netherlands. There are probably at least five teams with a shot at the gold medal, including the USA, so this is one that’s going to be hard to predict.

Projections:

Medal	Men’s
Gold	Spain
Silver	Italy
Bronze	Croatia
Medal	Women’s
Gold	Netherlands
Silver	Italy
Bronze	United States

Projected medal count:

Country	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
Netherlands	1	0	0	1
Spain	1	0	0	1
Italy	0	2	0	2
Croatia	0	0	1	1
United States	0	0	1	1

Beach volleyball is one of my favorite sports to watch at the Olympics, simply because it makes for good TV. It helps that the USA usually has a gold medal contender. But it was indoor volleyball that made my best memory of the Tokyo Games. The USA won the gold at about 2 am on the East Coast, and I went to Facebook to celebrate, as that clinched the gold medals race for the Americans. In my slumber, I went to a Penn State group where I asked for a “We Are” for our two players on the USA team. I fell back to sleep, then woke up to over 1,000 likes and comments.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Medal	Men’s indoor	Country
Gold	France	France
Silver	Russia	Russia
Bronze	Argentina	Argentina
Medal	Women’s indoor	Country
Gold	United States	United States
Silver	Brazil	Brazil
Bronze	Serbia	Serbia
Medal	Men’s beach	Country
Gold	Anders Mol Christian Sorum	Norway
Silver	Vlacheslav Krasilnikov Oleg Stoyanovskiy	Russia
Bronze	Cherif Younousse Ahmed Tijan	Qatar
Medal	Women’s beach	Country
Gold	April Ross Alix Klineman	United States
Silver	Taliqua Clancy Mariafe Artacho del Solar	Australia
Bronze	Joana Heidrich Anouk Verge-Depre	Switzerland

Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):

The United States are just on the outside looking in when it comes to the men’s indoor rankings. They sit in fifth, but Russia is in third, and they likely will not be invited to Paris. The margin between Italy and the U.S. is so minuscule that I’m going to give the Americans the nod for a medal. In the women’s rankings, it’s the U.S. and Italy both fighting it out with Brazil. Lurking, however, are the Chinese, who are in 5th at the moment.

Why am I favoring the U.S. and China when they’re lower in the rankings? Because there’s something about the Olympics that makes the heavyweights do better. Is it the Olympic Village, getting to be around other gold medal winners? Is it the fans? Is it something else? I’m not sure, but that’s the way it seems to go, so I’m going to bump the U.S. men and the Chinese women up a bit.

As for beach volleyball, I expect a showdown between Brazil and the U.S. in the women’s event, and a Scandinavian gold-medal game. The United States’ top men’s beach team is ranked 19th… a medal’s not happening.

It may not seem like it, but volleyball is a key sport to the medals race. Hear me out. When people talk about the Presidential election every four years, it’s always, “win Florida,” “win Ohio,” “win Pennsylvania,” etc. It’s similar here at the Games. If the U.S. can grab a couple of electoral votes – also known as gold medals – in volleyball, then the path to the medal count victory becomes a lot clearer. The thing the U.S. is lucky about is that the Chinese teams aren’t so powerful anymore. Xue Chen and Zhang Xi poised a great threat to the Americans back in 2012; now the highest-ranked Chinese team is 19th. So, if the U.S. doesn’t claim two golds – or if a Chinese team comes out of nowhere to win a gold – it spells doom for the medal chase.

Update (June 25, 2024):

No changes on the indoor front, but I’ve got a new leader in the men’s beach event. I’m keeping my women’s beach projections the same, but I’ll be rooting hard for Xue Chen, who became my favorite beach volleyballer in London. She’s ranked 9th; if her team shocks the world by knocking out an American team, it may be the difference in a very close gold medal race.

Projections:

Medal	Men’s indoor	Country
Gold	Brazil	Brazil
Silver	United States	United States
Bronze	Poland	Poland
Medal	Women’s indoor	Country
Gold	United States	United States
Silver	Brazil	Brazil
Bronze	China	China
Medal	Men’s beach	Country
Gold	Ondrej Perusic David Schweiner	Czech Republic
Silver	David Ahman Jonatan Hellvig	Sweden
Bronze	Michael Bryl Bartosz Losiak	Poland
Medal	Women’s beach	Country
Gold	Taryn Kloth Kristen Nuss	United States
Silver	Ana Patricia Silva Ramos Eduarda Santos Lisboa	Brazil
Bronze	Barbara Seixas Carol Salgado	Brazil

Projected medal count:

Country	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
United States	2	1	0	3
Brazil	1	2	1	4
Czech Republic	1	0	0	1
Sweden	0	1	0	1
Poland	0	0	2	2
China	0	0	1	1

I didn’t have any interest in this sport until I saw it in person at Atlanta in 1996. It was amazing! There had to be eight tables set up next to each other at the Georgia World Congress Center, and all these matches going on at once. The players would at times be 10 feet away from the table while in a rally. It’s one of those sports you have to see in person.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Medal	Men’s singles	Country
Gold	Ma Long	China
Silver	Fan Zhendong	China
Bronze	Dimitrij Ovtcharov	Germany
Medal	Men’s team	Country
Gold	Fan Zhendong Ma Long Xu Xin	China
Silver	Dimitrij Ovtcharov Patrick Franziska Timo Boll	Germany
Bronze	Jun Mizutani Koki Niwa Tomokazu Harimoto	Japan
Medal	Women’s singles	Country
Gold	Chen Meng	China
Silver	Sun Yingsha	China
Bronze	Mima Ito	Japan
Medal	Women’s team	Country
Gold	Chen Meng Sun Yingsha Wang Manyu	China
Silver	Mima Ito Kasumi Ishikawa Miu Hirano	Japan
Bronze	Doo Hoi Kem Lee Ho Ching Minnie Soo	Hong Kong
Medal	Mixed doubles	Country
Gold	Jun Mizutani Mima Ito	Japan
Silver	Xu Xin Liu Shiwen	China
Bronze	Lin Yun-ju Cheng I-ching	Taiwan

Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):

It’s time for China to flex their muscles. Maybe the USA will come away with four golds in basketball, but China can get those four back in table tennis – or maybe even all five. I’m going by the world rankings for my picks, but of course this can all change once qualifying gets going.

Sometimes you may watch NBC and wonder, “how in the heck is China ahead in gold medals when we aren’t seeing them win any?” And that’s because NBC refuses to show any of the events China dominates. Swimming, athletics, basketball, beach volleyball – all great sports, for sure. But China has its own strengths, and NBC purposely ignores them because they figure no one in America wants to see them.

Well, that’s where I come in. I like watching ALL the sports, and since 2008 I’ve tried to make sure I watch every single sport (although I think I missed the modern pentathlon in 2021). So while you’re watching a swimming heat that Katie Ledecky is winning by 10 seconds, I’ll be watching ping-pong and seeing China rack up the golds.

In Tokyo in 2021, Japan took full advantage of its home status, and they won four medals, including (shockingly) gold in the mixed doubles event. Funny how things work – if China wins that gold instead of silver, they end up breaking even with the United States in golds. So, you’ve got to hand it to Japan – their upset was enormous in its magnitude.

I wish there was still a doubles category, but looking at the schedule, you can see why they don’t have one – there’s simply no time for one. So, the team category replaces doubles just fine, although it would be cool if there were still a doubles category for each sex beyond mixed doubles. (Although that would probably put China over the top in golds.)

Now, as for predicting winners, I’m simply going with the world rankings. I’m sure these will change over time, but keep in mind that I’m *projecting*, not *predicting.* If I were predicting, I’d go with some upsets; but the goal here is to get the medal count as accurate as possible. Also, keep in mind the limits of entries into each category: only two singles entrants per sex are allowed per country, and only three per sex allowed overall (for the team event). That hurts China greatly, who has the top six women’s players in the world rankings. Why they can’t have three each for singles is beyond me, because they certainly do in track events. This also means the 4th-best women’s player in the world – at this moment, Wang Yidi – won’t even go to Paris.

Update (June 25, 2024):

China has an odd way of choosing its team for the Olympics, because at first I looked at it and saw no Chinese players in the field. Then I noticed that they had simply turned down an automatic berth from the Asian Championships and used a World Rankings quota. Japan will push them, but ultimately I’ve got to bet on China.

Projection:

Medal	Men’s singles	Country
Gold	Fan Zhendong	China
Silver	Wang Chuqin	China
Bronze	Tomokazu Harimoto	Japan
Medal	Men’s team	Country
Gold	Fan Zhendong Wang Chuqin Ma Long	China
Silver	Jang Woo-jin Lim Jong-hoon Cho Dae-seong	South Korea
Bronze	Hiroto Shinozuka Shunsuke Togami Tomokazu Harimoto	Japan
Medal	Women’s singles	Country
Gold	Sun Yingsha	China
Silver	Chen Meng	China
Bronze	Wang Manyu	China
Medal	Women’s team	Country
Gold	Sun Yingsha Wang Manyu Chen Meng	China
Silver	Miwa Harimoto Hina Hayata Miu Hirano	Japan
Bronze	Chen Szu-yu Cheng I-ching Chien Tung-chuan	Taiwan
Medal	Mixed doubles	Country
Gold	Wang Chuqin Sun Yingsha	China
Silver	Hina Hayata Tomokazu Harimoto	Japan
Bronze	Wong Chun Ting Doo Hoi Kem	Hong Kong

Projected medal count:

Country	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
China	5	2	1	8
Japan	0	2	2	4
South Korea	0	1	0	1
Hong Kong	0	0	1	1
Taiwan	0	0	1	1