Olympics

Equestrian

The last one! I have absolutely no idea how to judge dressage or count the number of faults for a jumping contest. I do know that watching the horses jump over all those obstacles is a lot of fun. Dressage? That’s an acquired taste. But I’m really taking a shot in the dark with these picks, because I just frankly don’t know much at all about the sport. Hopefully I’m able to come somewhat close to getting a couple right.

Projections:

MedalIndividual dressageCountry
GoldJessica von Bredow-WerndlGermany
SilverCharlotte DujardinGreat Britain
BronzeNanna Skodborg MerraldDenmark
MedalTeam dressageCountry
GoldGermanyGermany
SilverGreat BritainGreat Britain
BronzeDenmarkDenmark
MedalIndividual jumpingCountry
GoldHenrik von EckermannSweden
SilverMaikel van der VleutenNetherlands
BronzeJerome GueryBelgium
MedalTeam jumpingCountry
GoldSwedenSweden
SilverGreat BritainGreat Britain
BronzeNetherlandsNetherlands
MedalIndividual eventingCountry
GoldLambert LeclezioFrance
SilverManon MoutinhoFrance
BronzeJannik HeilandGermany
MedalTeam eventingCountry
GoldFranceFrance
SilverGermanyGermany
BronzeSwitzerlandSwitzerland

Projected medal count:

CountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal
Germany2114
France2103
Sweden2002
Great Britain0303
Netherlands0112
Denmark0022
Belgium0011
Switzerland0011
Olympics

Cycling

I’ll admit it, I’m completely befuddled on making my projections for cycling. It’s hard to find much info on this (and equestrian) as to who’s qualified or not. So, this will likely be one of my least accurate projections; I’m really taking a shot in the dark here. But the goal is to get a general idea of who’s gonna win medals, more than getting them right slot by slot. Note: this list is in a different form than the other ones, as men’s and women’s events alternate in this one.

Projections:

MedalMen’s road raceCountry
GoldTadej PogacarSlovenia
SilverMathieu Van Der PoelNetherlands
BronzeJasper PhilipsenBelgium
MedalWomen’s road raceCountry
GoldDemi VolleringNetherlands
SilverLotte KopeckyBelgium
BronzeElisa Longo BorghiniItaly
MedalMen’s time trialCountry
GoldFilippo GannaItaly
SilverRemco EvenepoelBelgium
BronzeTadej PogacarSlovenia
MedalWomen’s time trialCountry
GoldGrace BrownAustralia
SilverAnna HendersonGreat Britain
BronzeBrodie ChapmanAustralia
MedalMen’s team sprintCountry
GoldAustraliaAustralia
SilverNetherlandsNetherlands
BronzeGreat BritainGreat Britain
MedalWomen’s team sprintCountry
GoldChinaChina
SilverGreat BritainGreat Britain
BronzeGermanyGermany
MedalMen’s individual sprintCountry
GoldHarrie LavreysenNetherlands
SilverMatthew GlaetzerAustralia
BronzeJames HedgcockCanada
MedalWomen’s individual sprintCountry
GoldEllesse AndrewsNew Zealand
SilverSteffie van der PeetNetherlands
BronzeKelsey MitchellCanada
MedalMen’s keirinCountry
GoldHarrie LavreysenNetherlands
SilverJeffrey HooglandNetherlands
BronzeKevin QuinteroColombia
MedalWomen’s keirinCountry
GoldSteffie van der PeetNetherlands
SilverMartha BayonneColombia
BronzeHetty van de WouwNetherlands
MedalMen’s team pursuitCountry
GoldDenmarkDenmark
SilverNew ZealandNew Zealand
BronzeAustraliaAustralia
MedalWomen’s team pursuitCountry
GoldNew ZealandNew Zealand
SilverGreat BritainGreat Britain
BronzeItalyItaly
MedalMen’s MadisonCountry
GoldDenmarkDenmark
SilverAustraliaAustralia
BronzeNew ZealandNew Zealand
MedalWomen’s MadisonCountry
GoldNew ZealandNew Zealand
SilverAustraliaAustralia
BronzeGreat BritainGreat Britain
MedalMen’s omniumCountry
GoldJan Willem van SchipNetherlands
SilverGrant KoontzUnited States
BronzeAaron GateNew Zealand
MedalWomen’s omniumCountry
GoldMaike van der DuinNetherlands
SilverBryony BathaNew Zealand
BronzeJen ValenteUnited States
MedalMen’s mountain bikeCountry
GoldVictor KoretzkyFrance
SilverMatthias FlukingerSwitzerland
BronzeTom PidcockGreat Britain
MedalWomen’s mountain bikeCountry
GoldAlessandra KellerSwitzerland
SilverPauline Ferrand-PrevotFrance
BronzeHaley BattenUnited States
MedalMen’s BMX freestyleCountry
GoldAnthony JeanjeanFrance
SilverKieran ReillyGreat Britain
BronzeJustin DowellUnited States
MedalWomen’s BMX freestyleCountry
GoldHannah RobertsUnited States
SilverSun JiaqiChina
BronzeNikita DucarrozSwitzerland
MedalMen’s BMX raceCountry
GoldJoris DaudetFrance
SilverAndre SylvainFrance
BronzeNiek KimmannNetherlands
MedalWomen’s BMX raceCountry
GoldZoe ClassensSwitzerland
SilverAlise WilloughbyUnited States
BronzeLaura SmuldersNetherlands
CountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal
Netherlands64313
New Zealand3227
France3205
Australia2327
Switzerland2114
Denmark2002
United States1236
China1102
Italy1023
Slovenia1012
Great Britain0437
Belgium0213
Colombia0112
Canada0022
Germany0011
Olympics

Athletics

The heart and soul of every Olympics, athletics is the only sport that I was able to see two sessions of in Atlanta. (My others were table tennis, basketball, weightlifting, baseball, and soccer.) There’s no way of understanding how fun it is actually being in the stadium, because you’ve got two or three things going on at all times. Someone’s running, someone’s jumping, and someone’s throwing, all at once. You never know when someone’s about to move into first place. I hope with all my heart that I get to see it again at the Coliseum in 2028.

Projections:

MedalMen’s 100mCountry
GoldNoah LylesUnited States
SilverAckeem BlakeJamaica
BronzeOblique SevilleJamaica
MedalMen’s 200mCountry
GoldNoah LylesUnited States
SilverKenny BednarekUnited States
BronzeLetsile TebogoBotswana
MedalMen’s 400mCountry
GoldQuincy HallUnited States
SilverMatthew Hudson-SmithGreat Britain
BronzeKirani JamesGrenada
MedalMen’s 800mCountry
GoldMarco AropCanada
SilverEmmanuel WanyonyiKenya
BronzeWyclife KinyamalKenya
MedalMen’s 1500mCountry
GoldReynold CheruiyotKenya
SilverJakob IngebrigtsenNorway
BronzeYared NuguseUnited States
MedalMen’s 5000mCountry
GoldHagos GebrhiwetEthiopia
SilverYomif KejelchaEthiopia
BronzeGrant FisherUnited States
MedalMen’s 10000mCountry
GoldJoshua CheptegeiUganda
SilverSelemon BaregaEthiopia
BronzeBerihu AregawaiEthiopia
MedalMen’s 110m hurdlesCountry
GoldGrant HollowayUnited States
SilverHansle ParchmentJamaica
BronzeWilhem BelocianFrance
MedalMen’s 400m hurdlesCountry
GoldKarsten WarholmNorway
SilverAlison dos SantosBrazil
BronzeRai BenjaminUnited States
MedalMen’s 3000m steeplechaseCountry
GoldSoufiane El BakkaliMorocco
SilverAbraham KibiwotKenya
BronzeSimon KoechKenya
MedalMen’s high jumpCountry
GoldMutaz Esesa BarshimQatar
SilverJuVaughn HarrisonUnited States
BronzeGianmarco TamberiItaly
MedalMen’s pole vaultCountry
GoldArmand DuplantisSweden
SilverSam KendricksUnited States
BronzeErnest John ObienaPhilippines
MedalMen’s long jumpCountry
GoldTajay GayleJamaica
SilverCarey McLeodJamaica
BronzeMiltadis TentoglouGreece
MedalMen’s triple jumpCountry
GoldHugues Fabrice ZangoBurkina Faso
SilverLazaro MartinezCuba
BronzeAndy Diaz HernandezItaly
MedalMen’s shot putCountry
GoldRyan CrouserUnited States
SilverJoe KovacsUnited States
BronzeTom WalshNew Zealand
MedalMen’s discus throwCountry
GoldMykolas AleknaLithuania
SilverKristjan CehSlovenia
BronzeAndrius GudziusLithuania
MedalMen’s hammer throwCountry
GoldWojciech NowickiPoland
SilverMykhaylo KokhanUkraine
BronzeEthan KatzbergCanada
MedalMen’s javelin throwCountry
GoldNeeraj ChopraIndia
SilverJakub VadlejchCzech Republic
BronzeJulian WeberGermany
MedalMen’s marathonCountry
GoldEliud KipchogeKenya
SilverBenson KiprutoKenya
BronzeSisay LemmaEthiopia
MedalMen’s 20km walkCountry
GoldZhang JunChina
SilverAlvaro MartinSpain
BronzePerseus KarlstromSweden
MedalMen’s decathlonCountry
GoldPierce LePageCanada
SilverKarel TilgaEstonia
BronzeDamian WarnerCanada
MedalMen’s 4 x 100m relayCountry
GoldUnited StatesUnited States
SilverJamaicaJamaica
BronzeJapanJapan
MedalMen’s 4 x 400m relayCountry
GoldUnited StatesUnited States
SilverBotswanaBotswana
BronzeGreat BritainGreat Britain
MedalWomen’s 100mCountry
GoldSha’Carri RichardsonUnited States
SilverShericka JacksonJamaica
BronzeJulien AlfredSaint Lucia
MedalWomen’s 200mCountry
GoldShericka JacksonJamaica
SilverGabrielle ThomasUnited States
BronzeDaryll NeitaGreat Britain
MedalWomen’s 400mCountry
GoldMarileidy PaulinoDominican Republic
SilverNatalia KaczmarekPoland
BronzeSada WilliamsBarbados
MedalWomen’s 800mCountry
GoldMary MoraaKenya
SilverKeely HodgkinsonGreat Britain
BronzeHalimah NakaayiUganda
MedalWomen’s 1500mCountry
GoldLaura MuirGreat Britain
SilverFaith KipyegonKenya
BronzeDiribe WeltejiEthiopia
MedalWomen’s 5000mCountry
GoldEjgayehu TayeEthiopia
SilverGudaf TsegayEthiopia
BronzeBeatrice ChebetKenya
MedalWomen’s 10000mCountry
GoldGudaf TsegayEthiopia
SilverTsigie GebreselamaEthiopia
BronzeLilian Kasait RengerukKenya
MedalWomen’s 100m hurdlesCountry
GoldDevynne CharltonBahamas
SilverJasmine Camacho-QuinnPuerto Rico
BronzeDanielle WilliamsJamaica
MedalWomen’s 400m hurdlesCountry
GoldFemke BolNetherlands
SilverRushell ClaytonJamaica
BronzeJanieve RussellJamaica
MedalWomen’s 3000m steeplechaseCountry
GoldWinfred YaviBahrain
SilverBeatrice ChepkoechKenya
BronzeFaith CherotichKenya
MedalWomen’s high jumpCountry
GoldYaroslava MahuchikhUkraine
SilverNicola OlyslagersAustralia
BronzeIryna GerashchenkoUkraine
MedalWomen’s pole vaultCountry
GoldKatie MoonUnited States
SilverNina KennedyAustralia
BronzeMolly CauderyGreat Britain
MedalWomen’s long jumpCountry
GoldTara Davis-WoodhallUnited States
SilverIvana SpanovicSerbia
BronzeLarissa IapichinoItaly
MedalWomen’s triple jumpCountry
GoldShanieka RickettsJamaica
SilverThea LaFondDominica
BronzeMaryna Bekh-RomanchukUkraine
MedalWomen’s shot putCountry
GoldChase JacksonUnited States
SilverGong LijiaoChina
BronzeJessica SchilderNetherlands
MedalWomen’s discus throwCountry
GoldValerie AllmanUnited States
SilverFeng BinChina
BronzeSandra ElkasevicCroatia
MedalWomen’s hammer throwCountry
GoldCamryn RogersCanada
SilverDeAnna PriceUnited States
BronzeSara FantiniItaly
MedalWomen’s javelin throwCountry
GoldHaruka KitaguchiJapan
SilverFlor RuizColombia
BronzeLina MuzeLatvia
MedalWomen’s marathonCountry
GoldTigst AssefaEthiopia
SilverPeres JepchirchirKenya
BronzeAmane Beriso ShankuleEthiopia
MedalWomen’s 20km walkCountry
GoldKimberly Garcia LeonPeru
SilverJemima MontagAustralia
BronzeMaria PerezSpain
MedalWomen’s heptathlonCountry
GoldAnna HallUnited States
SilverKatarina Johnson-ThompsonGreat Britain
BronzeNafissatou ThiamBelgium
MedalWomen’s 4 x 100m relayCountry
GoldJamaicaJamaica
SilverUnited StatesUnited States
BronzeGreat BritainGreat Britain
MedalWomen’s 4 x 400m relayCountry
GoldUnited StatesUnited States
SilverGreat BritainGreat Britain
BronzeJamaicaJamaica
MedalMixed 4 x 400m relayCountry
GoldUnited StatesUnited States
SilverJamaicaJamaica
BronzeGreat BritainGreat Britain
MedalMixed racewalk relayCountry
GoldChinaChina
SilverAustraliaAustralia
BronzeSpainSpain

Projected medal count:

CountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal
United States157325
Jamaica46515
Ethiopia44412
Kenya36514
Canada3025
China2204
Great Britain14510
Ukraine1124
Norway1102
Poland1102
Japan1012
Lithuania1012
Sweden1012
Uganda1012
Bahamas1001
Bahrain1001
Burkina Faso1001
Dominican Republic1001
India1001
Morocco1001
Peru1001
Qatar1001
Australia0404
Spain0123
Botswana0112
Brazil0101
Colombia0101
Cuba0101
Czech Republic0101
Dominica0101
Estonia0101
Puerto Rico0101
Serbia0101
Slovenia0101
Italy0044
Barbados0011
Belgium0011
Croatia0011
France0011
Germany0011
Greece0011
Grenada0011
Latvia0011
New Zealand0011
Philippines0011
Saint Lucia0011
Olympics

Gymnastics

I suppose there was a time gymnastics wasn’t a marquee sport in the United States. But I’m too young to remember it. All I remember is the 1996 women’s team winning the gold medal, and the country falling in love with the sport. Now the USA is coming off five consecutive gold medals in the women’s all-around, and looking for a sixth. They’ll probably get it, but one thing we’ve learned is that this sport is never predictable. I’m not too confident in my projections, even though (unlike most of the other sports) I’ve actually watched the Trials of this sport. Due to the lack of clear rankings in this sport, I am literally taking a shot in the dark on this.

Projections:

MedalMen’s individual all-aroundCountry
GoldIllia KovtunUkraine
SilverTang Chia-HungTaiwan
BronzeRyu SunghyunSouth Korea
MedalMen’s teamCountry
GoldChinaChina
SilverJapanJapan
BronzeGreat BritainGreat Britain
MedalMen’s floor exerciseCountry
GoldIllia KovtunUkraine
SilverRyu SunghyunSouth Korea
BronzeBenjamin OsbergerFrance
MedalMen’s pommel horseCountry
GoldNariman KurbanovKazakhstan
SilverAhmad Abu Al SoudJordan
BronzeIllia KovtunUkraine
MedalMen’s still ringsCountry
GoldSamir Ait SaidFrance
SilverNikita SimonovAzerbaijan
BronzeVahagn DavtyanArmenia
MedalMen’s vaultCountry
GoldArtur DavtyanArmenia
SilverNazar ChepurnyiUkraine
BronzePau JimenezSpain
MedalMen’s parallel barsCountry
GoldIllia KovtunUkraine
SilverOleg VerniaievUkraine
BronzeRasuljon AbdurakhimovUzbekistan
MedalMen’s horizontal barCountry
GoldTang Chia-HungTaiwan
SilverRobert TvorogalLithuania
BronzeTian HaoChina
MedalWomen’s individual all-aroundCountry
GoldSimone BilesUnited States
SilverSunisa LeeUnited States
BronzeZhou YaqinChina
MedalWomen’s teamCountry
GoldUnited StatesUnited States
SilverChinaChina
BronzeCanadaCanada
MedalWomen’s vaultCountry
GoldSimone BilesUnited States
SilverJade CareyUnited States
BronzeAn Chang-okNorth Korea
MedalWomen’s uneven barsCountry
GoldSunisa LeeUnited States
SilverJordan ChilesUnited States
BronzeKaylia NemourAlgeria
MedalWomen’s balance beamCountry
GoldSimone BilesUnited States
SilverHezly RiveraUnited States
BronzeZhou YaqinChina
MedalWomen’s floor exerciseCountry
GoldSimone BilesUnited States
SilverSunisa LeeUnited States
BronzeCharlize MorzAustria
MedalWomen’s rhythmic all-aroundCountry
GoldDarja VarfolomeevGermany
SilverSofia RaffaeliItaly
BronzeElvira KrasnobaevaBulgaria
MedalWomen’s teamCountry
GoldChinaChina
SilverItalyItaly
BronzeBulgariaBulgaria
MedalMen’s trampolineCountry
GoldWang ZisaiChina
SilverYan LangyuChina
BronzeMiguel FeyhGermany
MedalWomen’s trampolineCountry
GoldZhu XueyingChina
SilverHu YichengChina
BronzeBryony PageGreat Britain

Projected medal count:

CountryGoldSilverBronzeTotal
United States65011
China43310
Ukraine3216
Taiwan1102
Armenia1012
France1012
Germany1012
Kazakhstan1001
Italy0202
South Korea0112
Azerbaijan0101
Japan0101
Jordan0101
Lithuania0101
Bulgaria0022
Algeria0011
Austria0011
Canada0011
Great Britain0011
North Korea0011
Spain0011
Uzbekistan0011