Beach volleyball is one of my favorite sports to watch at the Olympics, simply because it makes for good TV. It helps that the USA usually has a gold medal contender. But it was indoor volleyball that made my best memory of the Tokyo Games. The USA won the gold at about 2 am on the East Coast, and I went to Facebook to celebrate, as that clinched the gold medals race for the Americans. In my slumber, I went to a Penn State group where I asked for a “We Are” for our two players on the USA team. I fell back to sleep, then woke up to over 1,000 likes and comments.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):

The United States are just on the outside looking in when it comes to the men’s indoor rankings. They sit in fifth, but Russia is in third, and they likely will not be invited to Paris. The margin between Italy and the U.S. is so minuscule that I’m going to give the Americans the nod for a medal. In the women’s rankings, it’s the U.S. and Italy both fighting it out with Brazil. Lurking, however, are the Chinese, who are in 5th at the moment.

Why am I favoring the U.S. and China when they’re lower in the rankings? Because there’s something about the Olympics that makes the heavyweights do better. Is it the Olympic Village, getting to be around other gold medal winners? Is it the fans? Is it something else? I’m not sure, but that’s the way it seems to go, so I’m going to bump the U.S. men and the Chinese women up a bit.

As for beach volleyball, I expect a showdown between Brazil and the U.S. in the women’s event, and a Scandinavian gold-medal game. The United States’ top men’s beach team is ranked 19th… a medal’s not happening.

It may not seem like it, but volleyball is a key sport to the medals race. Hear me out. When people talk about the Presidential election every four years, it’s always, “win Florida,” “win Ohio,” “win Pennsylvania,” etc. It’s similar here at the Games. If the U.S. can grab a couple of electoral votes – also known as gold medals – in volleyball, then the path to the medal count victory becomes a lot clearer. The thing the U.S. is lucky about is that the Chinese teams aren’t so powerful anymore. Xue Chen and Zhang Xi poised a great threat to the Americans back in 2012; now the highest-ranked Chinese team is 19th. So, if the U.S. doesn’t claim two golds – or if a Chinese team comes out of nowhere to win a gold – it spells doom for the medal chase.

Projections:

Projected medal count:

I didn’t have any interest in this sport until I saw it in person at Atlanta in 1996. It was amazing! There had to be eight tables set up next to each other at the Georgia World Congress Center, and all these matches going on at once. The players would at times be 10 feet away from the table while in a rally. It’s one of those sports you have to see in person.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):

It’s time for China to flex their muscles. Maybe the USA will come away with four golds in basketball, but China can get those four back in table tennis – or maybe even all five. I’m going by the world rankings for my picks, but of course this can all change once qualifying gets going.

Sometimes you may watch NBC and wonder, “how in the heck is China ahead in gold medals when we aren’t seeing them win any?” And that’s because NBC refuses to show any of the events China dominates. Swimming, athletics, basketball, beach volleyball – all great sports, for sure. But China has its own strengths, and NBC purposely ignores them because they figure no one in America wants to see them.

Well, that’s where I come in. I like watching ALL the sports, and since 2008 I’ve tried to make sure I watch every single sport (although I think I missed the modern pentathlon in 2021). So while you’re watching a swimming heat that Katie Ledecky is winning by 10 seconds, I’ll be watching ping-pong and seeing China rack up the golds.

In Tokyo in 2021, Japan took full advantage of its home status, and they won four medals, including (shockingly) gold in the mixed doubles event. Funny how things work – if China wins that gold instead of silver, they end up breaking even with the United States in golds. So, you’ve got to hand it to Japan – their upset was enormous in its magnitude.

I wish there was still a doubles category, but looking at the schedule, you can see why they don’t have one – there’s simply no time for one. So, the team category replaces doubles just fine, although it would be cool if there were still a doubles category for each sex beyond mixed doubles. (Although that would probably put China over the top in golds.)

Now, as for predicting winners, I’m simply going with the world rankings. I’m sure these will change over time, but keep in mind that I’m *projecting*, not *predicting.* If I were predicting, I’d go with some upsets; but the goal here is to get the medal count as accurate as possible. Also, keep in mind the limits of entries into each category: only two singles entrants per sex are allowed per country, and only three per sex allowed overall (for the team event). That hurts China greatly, who has the top six women’s players in the world rankings. Why they can’t have three each for singles is beyond me, because they certainly do in track events. This also means the 4th-best women’s player in the world – at this moment, Wang Yidi – won’t even go to Paris.

Projection:

Projected medal count:

This is an extremely underrated sport. Ice hockey may be better on television, but a field hockey game has more excitement and action than pretty much every single pro soccer game. Yet the scores aren’t sky high, and that’s something that works in field hockey’s advantage. It can deliver on the excitement while still being very low-scoring. Unfortunately, no man in America has ever played, seen, or even heard of field hockey, and as a result, it’s never on TV during the Olympics, unless the women’s team pulls off a miracle run.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Outlook (as of June 20, 2023):

I’m doing this too early, as the qualifying tournaments aren’t even close to getting started. However, I *can* base my picks off world rankings, and then change them as we get closer to the Games. Forgive me if I sound naive, but I don’t know anything about who’s good and who isn’t at field hockey. I can watch the sport and enjoy it, but I couldn’t tell you who is the best at it. I know India once ruled this sport, and that Pakistan used to be pretty good at it too. As for now? I’m just believing the world rankings.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count:

Most sports in the Olympics, I don’t have a clue who’s good and who isn’t other than from 1) world rankings or 2) world championships. Can you blame me? Handball is one of the best sports in the world, but for whatever reason it never caught on in America. I *love* this sport. I play the Handball 21 video game despite all of its flaws. Handball is awesome, and it should be more popular than soccer.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Men’s outlook (as of June 13, 2023):

My first response is to go with who won it last time. Then I go to the home nation. As it turns out, both are one and the same! France swept in Tokyo, so you’d figure they’d repeat in Paris.

But in the 2023 World Men’s Handball Championship, Denmark beat France for the gold. Otherwise, it was the same three teams winning the medals. So, do I go with the defending champs? Do I go with the home team? Do I go with the world champs? Well, as Meat Loaf said, two out of three ain’t bad.

2024 projections:

Women’s outlook (as of June 13, 2023):

These will most likely change after the World Women’s Handball Championship this December. For the moment, I’m going to project the same gold medalists, but some differences below.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count: