Don’t get me wrong; I like soccer. But I feel there are ways to make the sport better. The number one change I’d make is eliminating penalty kick shootouts deciding elimination matches. Make it “golden goal” extra time, sudden-death overtime, whatever you want to call it. Only one goal is scored in extra time, and the team that scores it is the winner. Why not? After all, ice hockey has the best overtime in all of sports. You hold your breath for 20 minutes, exhale for a few, then hold it again as double overtime begins.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Men’s outlook (as of June 11, 2023):

Remember: the men’s soccer tournament at the Olympics is under-23 plus three players over 23. As I write this, only three nations have officially qualified – France, the Dominican Republic, and the United States. That’s what makes picking this so hard. I’ll have a better knowledge of it come mid-July, after Europe and Africa have qualified three teams each. For now, though, I’m going to bet big on France, since they’re at home, they’re already in, and they’re always good.

Update (June 25, 2024):

Brazil apparently did not qualify. That gives the USA a real shot at getting a bronze, which would be amazing for soccer in this country. But I know better than to pin my hopes on USA Soccer! Instead, I’ll bet on a South American team to join France and Spain on the podium.

2024 projections:

Women’s 2024 outlook (as of June 11, 2023):

The United States have won four gold medals, but none since 2012. They’re already qualified for Paris, though, and they’ll be heavy favorites, likely coming off a massive World Cup win. If they don’t win the World Cup… then I’m still picking them. Unlike with the men, the women’s Olympic event is still a big deal, and I wouldn’t doubt the USA’s ability to focus in on winning a tournament that could bring even more attention to women’s sports.

Update (June 25, 2024):

Looks like the World Cup didn’t turn out to be all roses for the USWNT. That’s okay, though, because it only fuels the fire for Paris. The USWNT has something to prove. They are out for revenge. Thus, my prediction isn’t changing, but rather staying the same.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count:

There’s no gold medal I want more each Olympics than the men’s one. When the USA men won it in Tokyo, I was beyond elated. Why? Because this is a thankless job the men do. They are expected to win gold, and if they don’t, they get ridiculed at home. Only gold is enough, which brings us back to the purpose of this site. When gold medals are the “ahem” *gold* standard, that’s the only thing that’s going to satisfy both me and all NBA fans.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Men’s outlook (June 10, 2023):

1936. 1948. 1952. 1956. 1960. 1964. 1968. 1972*. 1976. 1984. 1992. 1996. 2000. 2008. 2012. 2016. 2020.

That’s the list of gold medals by the USA men. Quite frankly, that’s not enough, in my mind. They were robbed in 1972 by corrupt Cold War referees and officials. That’s why I list 1972 amongst their victories.

Unless the USA men either don’t qualify (very unlikely) or end up with a bunch of injuries that waters down the roster (very possible), then USA will be the favorite in Paris. However, France is extremely dangerous. They beat USA in their first game in Tokyo, before losing the gold-medal game to them. And with Victor Wembanyama on the rise, I’d pencil France into that gold medal game right now. Obviously, things could shake out funny in the bracket, and USA and France could meet in the semifinals, but right now it’s a two-team race for gold.

As for bronze, it’s either Luka Doncic for Slovenia or Nikola Jokic for Serbia. Spain and Australia will remain contenders too, but I’m betting on the Doncic-Jokic duo to get into the bronze-medal game.

Projection:

Women’s outlook (June 10, 2023):

The USA women haven’t lost since 1992. I mean, period. Not just lose the gold medal. They haven’t lost a single game since 1992, when they took home the bronze. And with the rise of the WNBA and the renewed interest in the women’s game, it’s hard for me to see anyone else winning gold, or even beating USA once.

As for other medals, France won bronze in Tokyo. I say the home-court advantage boosts them to another medal. Japan won silver at home, for example. Spain and Serbia both went 3-0 in the group stage last time, but neither medaled. I’m going with one of them as the third-place finisher.

Projection:

3×3 outlook (June 10, 2023):

The USA’s two teams lost a combined two games in the FIBA 3×3 World Cup. That sounds good for future competition. Man, just put LeBron James on a 3×3 team and you’ve got an automatic gold medal! Seriously, why not? In any case, I’m very bullish on USA’s basketball chances. This is one where I can see the USA completely sweeping all four basketball gold medals… which might be a necessity to win the golds race over China.

Men’s 3×3 Projection:

Women’s 3×3 Projection:

Overall medal count:

Golf is probably my favorite sport played at the Olympics, because it’s my second-favorite sport behind American football. I love the stroke play format they have; I’m not a fan of match play except during the Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup.

I just wish there was a team aspect of it. The trouble with the team aspect is that you’d have to invite about double the golfers they have now in order to fill out teams. USA would have its team full in no time, but who’s going to compete with them? In order to get four-player teams from enough countries, you’d have to go close to 200 spots down in the world rankings. Two-player teams would be the route to go, even though you’d still have to go pretty far down the world ranking list.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Men’s outlook (as of June 10, 2023):

Obviously, a lot has changed in golf over the last two years – scratch that, two weeks. But one thing is the same for the men – gold medalist Xander Schauffele remains in the top 10 and would be invited back to the Olympics. If he can stay there, he’s a huge threat to win it all.

Scottie Scheffler is as of this writing the top golfer in the world, though that could change at any moment. He would make it in as one of four USA golfers in the top 10: himself, Patrick Cantlay, Schauffele, and… Max Homa? How the heck did he get in there? He’s never won anything of consequence! I fully expect someone to replace him. Jordan Spieth if he can stay healthy, Tony Finau if he can win, Brooks Koepka if he’s able to get world ranking points on the LIV Tour, maybe even Justin Thomas… that top four is going to look a whole lot different a year from now. (Update, June 24, 2024: It does.)

Other world contenders include Spain’s Jon Rahm, (Northern) Ireland’s Rory McIlroy, Norway’s Viktor Hovland, Great Britain’s Matt Fitzpatrick, and Australia’s Cameron Smith. But that’s all you’ve got in the top 10, and six USA golfers beating down the door right below them.

Rory Sabbatini and C.T. Pan won’t repeat as medalists. Their wins were sort of flukes; yes, they deserved the medals, but they are so low in the world rankings (outside the top 100) that they can easily be dismissed.

Can Schauffele repeat? Or another American? Well, if the USA has 10 guys in the top 16, and four going to the Olympics, I’m going to go out on a limb and say they do well. The Americans have quadruple as many top-10 players as everyone else; that means they’ve got four times the chances at a gold.

UPDATE (As of June 24, 2023)

Things have changed, a bit. Jon Rahm, my original pick for silver, has fallen off a cliff thanks mainly to his defection to LIV Golf. And Patrick Cantlay didn’t make the team, my original pick for bronze. But Scottie Scheffler remains the best golfer in the world. Behind him? I’m going for a bit of sentimentality for silver. Rory McIlroy gets it, and Xander Schauffele finishes a great season with a bronze.

Projection:

Women’s outlook (as of June 10, 2023):

The “Ko’s” have it! South Korea’s Jin Young Ko and New Zealand’s Lydia Ko are both in the top three in the world rankings. In between them is defending gold medalist Nelly Korda. How do we figure these players out?

Let’s start with Korda. She’s one of my favorite woman golfers. Unfortunately she’s had trouble with blood clots. It’s too difficult to predict whether she’d be ready in 2024. For her sake, I hope she heals and gets better; and after all, she’s already got a gold anyway.

As for the “Ko’s,” Jin Young has the top spot as of now and the best chance at winning gold in Paris. But Lydia has won a silver and a bronze at the first two women’s golf events at the Olympics since 1900. There’s reason to believe she’s hungry to finally stand on top of that podium.

Two or three years ago, you’d find so many South Korean players at the top that it would be almost impossible to decide which ones would go to the Games. But now, you have to go all the way down to 24 to get Korea’s fourth-ranked golfer. Of course, that’s impressive, but not as dominating as the American men are.

Other contenders include Australia’s Minjee Lee, who’s been great recently, USA’s Lexi Thompson, who’s had trouble closing out major championships, and Canada’s Brooke Henderson, another star. But there’s one who is perhaps the biggest threat at a medal who isn’t even in the top 50 (yet): USA’s Rose Zhang. She won her first tournament as a pro, something not accomplished since 1951. She may be way down the rankings now, but just give her a season and see if she doesn’t take the world by storm. Projecting her performance is hard, though, as she’s not in the top four Americans yet. I’m going to leave her out of the top three… for now.

UPDATE (As of June 24, 2024)

Nelly Korda of the USA has become the greatest player in the world over the past year. She won five consecutive events that she entered at one point, including a major. She’s eclipsed pretty much everyone else, including Lilia Vu, who won a pair of majors last year. Meanwhile, the Ko’s haven’t been in good form. Oh, and there’s Rose Zhang, who I’ll be fully behind, but who I predict to miss the podium.