I didn’t have any interest in this sport until I saw it in person at Atlanta in 1996. It was amazing! There had to be eight tables set up next to each other at the Georgia World Congress Center, and all these matches going on at once. The players would at times be 10 feet away from the table while in a rally. It’s one of those sports you have to see in person.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):

It’s time for China to flex their muscles. Maybe the USA will come away with four golds in basketball, but China can get those four back in table tennis – or maybe even all five. I’m going by the world rankings for my picks, but of course this can all change once qualifying gets going.

Sometimes you may watch NBC and wonder, “how in the heck is China ahead in gold medals when we aren’t seeing them win any?” And that’s because NBC refuses to show any of the events China dominates. Swimming, athletics, basketball, beach volleyball – all great sports, for sure. But China has its own strengths, and NBC purposely ignores them because they figure no one in America wants to see them.

Well, that’s where I come in. I like watching ALL the sports, and since 2008 I’ve tried to make sure I watch every single sport (although I think I missed the modern pentathlon in 2021). So while you’re watching a swimming heat that Katie Ledecky is winning by 10 seconds, I’ll be watching ping-pong and seeing China rack up the golds.

In Tokyo in 2021, Japan took full advantage of its home status, and they won four medals, including (shockingly) gold in the mixed doubles event. Funny how things work – if China wins that gold instead of silver, they end up breaking even with the United States in golds. So, you’ve got to hand it to Japan – their upset was enormous in its magnitude.

I wish there was still a doubles category, but looking at the schedule, you can see why they don’t have one – there’s simply no time for one. So, the team category replaces doubles just fine, although it would be cool if there were still a doubles category for each sex beyond mixed doubles. (Although that would probably put China over the top in golds.)

Now, as for predicting winners, I’m simply going with the world rankings. I’m sure these will change over time, but keep in mind that I’m *projecting*, not *predicting.* If I were predicting, I’d go with some upsets; but the goal here is to get the medal count as accurate as possible. Also, keep in mind the limits of entries into each category: only two singles entrants per sex are allowed per country, and only three per sex allowed overall (for the team event). That hurts China greatly, who has the top six women’s players in the world rankings. Why they can’t have three each for singles is beyond me, because they certainly do in track events. This also means the 4th-best women’s player in the world – at this moment, Wang Yidi – won’t even go to Paris.

Update (June 25, 2024):

China has an odd way of choosing its team for the Olympics, because at first I looked at it and saw no Chinese players in the field. Then I noticed that they had simply turned down an automatic berth from the Asian Championships and used a World Rankings quota. Japan will push them, but ultimately I’ve got to bet on China.

Projection:

Projected medal count:

This is an extremely underrated sport. Ice hockey may be better on television, but a field hockey game has more excitement and action than pretty much every single pro soccer game. Yet the scores aren’t sky high, and that’s something that works in field hockey’s advantage. It can deliver on the excitement while still being very low-scoring. Unfortunately, no man in America has ever played, seen, or even heard of field hockey, and as a result, it’s never on TV during the Olympics, unless the women’s team pulls off a miracle run.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Outlook (as of June 20, 2023):

I’m doing this too early, as the qualifying tournaments aren’t even close to getting started. However, I *can* base my picks off world rankings, and then change them as we get closer to the Games. Forgive me if I sound naive, but I don’t know anything about who’s good and who isn’t at field hockey. I can watch the sport and enjoy it, but I couldn’t tell you who is the best at it. I know India once ruled this sport, and that Pakistan used to be pretty good at it too. As for now? I’m just believing the world rankings.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count:

Most sports in the Olympics, I don’t have a clue who’s good and who isn’t other than from 1) world rankings or 2) world championships. Can you blame me? Handball is one of the best sports in the world, but for whatever reason it never caught on in America. I *love* this sport. I play the Handball 21 video game despite all of its flaws. Handball is awesome, and it should be more popular than soccer.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Men’s outlook (as of June 13, 2023):

My first response is to go with who won it last time. Then I go to the home nation. As it turns out, both are one and the same! France swept in Tokyo, so you’d figure they’d repeat in Paris.

But in the 2023 World Men’s Handball Championship, Denmark beat France for the gold. Otherwise, it was the same three teams winning the medals. So, do I go with the defending champs? Do I go with the home team? Do I go with the world champs? Well, as Meat Loaf said, two out of three ain’t bad.

2024 projections:

Women’s outlook (as of June 13, 2023):

These will most likely change after the World Women’s Handball Championship this December. For the moment, I’m going to project the same gold medalists, but some differences below.

Update (June 26, 2024):

I’m sticking with France as champions, but what with Norway winning the 2023 World Championship, I’ve bumped them up, and added 2022 European champion Denmark.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count:

Perhaps no team sport at the Olympics is as exciting as rugby sevens. If you like American football, you’ll love rugby sevens. It’s fast-paced with lots of action, hitting, nifty running, passing, and even some kicking. I’ve fallen in love with this sport thanks to the past two Olympics and Olympic video games.

Tokyo 2020 results:

2024 outlook (as of June 11, 2023):

It all comes down to New Zealand and Fiji. Those are the world powers in rugby, and it’s hard to pick one over the other. For that reason, I’m splitting the golds and silvers between the two. I may be wrong in all four slots, but I still think that Fiji will take home one gold and one silver, and so will New Zealand.

How about the bronzes? Great Britain, in my mind, is the biggest threat; they finished fourth in both tournaments two years ago. France may make a run at home, and the United States is a slight contender. Ultimately, my projections don’t look all that different from last time’s.

Update (June 25, 2024):

It looks as if Great Britain’s men’s team has fallen off a bit in the World Rugby Series. Therefore, I’m going to change my bronze medal pick over to Argentina. In the women’s tournament, Fiji’s fallen off a bit, so I’m going to bump up France and add in Australia. Sorry, USA, I want you to win, but the competition’s just too fierce.

2024 projections:

Projected medal count: