I didn’t catch any surfing at the Tokyo Games, so I am not at all familiar with how this sport is scored and judged. As such, I will admit I am taking a huge shot in the dark with these picks, as there isn’t all that much data to go off.
Projections:
| Medal | Men’s shortboard | Country |
| Gold | John John Florence | United States |
| Silver | Ethan Ewing | Australia |
| Bronze | Griffin Colapinto | United States |
| Medal | Women’s shortboard | Country |
| Gold | Molly Picklum | Australia |
| Silver | Tatiana Weston-Webb | Brazil |
| Bronze | Carissa Moore | United States |
Projected medal count:
| Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| Australia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| United States | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Brazil | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Tommy A. Phillips 