Beach volleyball is one of my favorite sports to watch at the Olympics, simply because it makes for good TV. It helps that the USA usually has a gold medal contender. But it was indoor volleyball that made my best memory of the Tokyo Games. The USA won the gold at about 2 am on the East Coast, and I went to Facebook to celebrate, as that clinched the gold medals race for the Americans. In my slumber, I went to a Penn State group where I asked for a “We Are” for our two players on the USA team. I fell back to sleep, then woke up to over 1,000 likes and comments.
Tokyo 2020 results:
| Medal | Men’s indoor | Country |
| Gold | France | France |
| Silver | Russia | Russia |
| Bronze | Argentina | Argentina |
| Medal | Women’s indoor | Country |
| Gold | United States | United States |
| Silver | Brazil | Brazil |
| Bronze | Serbia | Serbia |
| Medal | Men’s beach | Country |
| Gold | Anders Mol Christian Sorum | Norway |
| Silver | Vlacheslav Krasilnikov Oleg Stoyanovskiy | Russia |
| Bronze | Cherif Younousse Ahmed Tijan | Qatar |
| Medal | Women’s beach | Country |
| Gold | April Ross Alix Klineman | United States |
| Silver | Taliqua Clancy Mariafe Artacho del Solar | Australia |
| Bronze | Joana Heidrich Anouk Verge-Depre | Switzerland |
Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):
The United States are just on the outside looking in when it comes to the men’s indoor rankings. They sit in fifth, but Russia is in third, and they likely will not be invited to Paris. The margin between Italy and the U.S. is so minuscule that I’m going to give the Americans the nod for a medal. In the women’s rankings, it’s the U.S. and Italy both fighting it out with Brazil. Lurking, however, are the Chinese, who are in 5th at the moment.
Why am I favoring the U.S. and China when they’re lower in the rankings? Because there’s something about the Olympics that makes the heavyweights do better. Is it the Olympic Village, getting to be around other gold medal winners? Is it the fans? Is it something else? I’m not sure, but that’s the way it seems to go, so I’m going to bump the U.S. men and the Chinese women up a bit.
As for beach volleyball, I expect a showdown between Brazil and the U.S. in the women’s event, and a Scandinavian gold-medal game. The United States’ top men’s beach team is ranked 19th… a medal’s not happening.
It may not seem like it, but volleyball is a key sport to the medals race. Hear me out. When people talk about the Presidential election every four years, it’s always, “win Florida,” “win Ohio,” “win Pennsylvania,” etc. It’s similar here at the Games. If the U.S. can grab a couple of electoral votes – also known as gold medals – in volleyball, then the path to the medal count victory becomes a lot clearer. The thing the U.S. is lucky about is that the Chinese teams aren’t so powerful anymore. Xue Chen and Zhang Xi poised a great threat to the Americans back in 2012; now the highest-ranked Chinese team is 19th. So, if the U.S. doesn’t claim two golds – or if a Chinese team comes out of nowhere to win a gold – it spells doom for the medal chase.
Update (June 25, 2024):
No changes on the indoor front, but I’ve got a new leader in the men’s beach event. I’m keeping my women’s beach projections the same, but I’ll be rooting hard for Xue Chen, who became my favorite beach volleyballer in London. She’s ranked 9th; if her team shocks the world by knocking out an American team, it may be the difference in a very close gold medal race.
Projections:
| Medal | Men’s indoor | Country |
| Gold | Brazil | Brazil |
| Silver | United States | United States |
| Bronze | Poland | Poland |
| Medal | Women’s indoor | Country |
| Gold | United States | United States |
| Silver | Brazil | Brazil |
| Bronze | China | China |
| Medal | Men’s beach | Country |
| Gold | Ondrej Perusic David Schweiner | Czech Republic |
| Silver | David Ahman Jonatan Hellvig | Sweden |
| Bronze | Michael Bryl Bartosz Losiak | Poland |
| Medal | Women’s beach | Country |
| Gold | Taryn Kloth Kristen Nuss | United States |
| Silver | Ana Patricia Silva Ramos Eduarda Santos Lisboa | Brazil |
| Bronze | Barbara Seixas Carol Salgado | Brazil |
Projected medal count:
| Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| United States | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Brazil | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Czech Republic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sweden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Poland | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| China | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Tommy A. Phillips 