I didn’t have any interest in this sport until I saw it in person at Atlanta in 1996. It was amazing! There had to be eight tables set up next to each other at the Georgia World Congress Center, and all these matches going on at once. The players would at times be 10 feet away from the table while in a rally. It’s one of those sports you have to see in person.
Tokyo 2020 results:
| Medal | Men’s singles | Country |
| Gold | Ma Long | China |
| Silver | Fan Zhendong | China |
| Bronze | Dimitrij Ovtcharov | Germany |
| Medal | Men’s team | Country |
| Gold | Fan Zhendong Ma Long Xu Xin | China |
| Silver | Dimitrij Ovtcharov Patrick Franziska Timo Boll | Germany |
| Bronze | Jun Mizutani Koki Niwa Tomokazu Harimoto | Japan |
| Medal | Women’s singles | Country |
| Gold | Chen Meng | China |
| Silver | Sun Yingsha | China |
| Bronze | Mima Ito | Japan |
| Medal | Women’s team | Country |
| Gold | Chen Meng Sun Yingsha Wang Manyu | China |
| Silver | Mima Ito Kasumi Ishikawa Miu Hirano | Japan |
| Bronze | Doo Hoi Kem Lee Ho Ching Minnie Soo | Hong Kong |
| Medal | Mixed doubles | Country |
| Gold | Jun Mizutani Mima Ito | Japan |
| Silver | Xu Xin Liu Shiwen | China |
| Bronze | Lin Yun-ju Cheng I-ching | Taiwan |
Outlook (as of June 21, 2023):
It’s time for China to flex their muscles. Maybe the USA will come away with four golds in basketball, but China can get those four back in table tennis – or maybe even all five. I’m going by the world rankings for my picks, but of course this can all change once qualifying gets going.
Sometimes you may watch NBC and wonder, “how in the heck is China ahead in gold medals when we aren’t seeing them win any?” And that’s because NBC refuses to show any of the events China dominates. Swimming, athletics, basketball, beach volleyball – all great sports, for sure. But China has its own strengths, and NBC purposely ignores them because they figure no one in America wants to see them.
Well, that’s where I come in. I like watching ALL the sports, and since 2008 I’ve tried to make sure I watch every single sport (although I think I missed the modern pentathlon in 2021). So while you’re watching a swimming heat that Katie Ledecky is winning by 10 seconds, I’ll be watching ping-pong and seeing China rack up the golds.
In Tokyo in 2021, Japan took full advantage of its home status, and they won four medals, including (shockingly) gold in the mixed doubles event. Funny how things work – if China wins that gold instead of silver, they end up breaking even with the United States in golds. So, you’ve got to hand it to Japan – their upset was enormous in its magnitude.
I wish there was still a doubles category, but looking at the schedule, you can see why they don’t have one – there’s simply no time for one. So, the team category replaces doubles just fine, although it would be cool if there were still a doubles category for each sex beyond mixed doubles. (Although that would probably put China over the top in golds.)
Now, as for predicting winners, I’m simply going with the world rankings. I’m sure these will change over time, but keep in mind that I’m *projecting*, not *predicting.* If I were predicting, I’d go with some upsets; but the goal here is to get the medal count as accurate as possible. Also, keep in mind the limits of entries into each category: only two singles entrants per sex are allowed per country, and only three per sex allowed overall (for the team event). That hurts China greatly, who has the top six women’s players in the world rankings. Why they can’t have three each for singles is beyond me, because they certainly do in track events. This also means the 4th-best women’s player in the world – at this moment, Wang Yidi – won’t even go to Paris.
Update (June 25, 2024):
China has an odd way of choosing its team for the Olympics, because at first I looked at it and saw no Chinese players in the field. Then I noticed that they had simply turned down an automatic berth from the Asian Championships and used a World Rankings quota. Japan will push them, but ultimately I’ve got to bet on China.
Projection:
| Medal | Men’s singles | Country |
| Gold | Fan Zhendong | China |
| Silver | Wang Chuqin | China |
| Bronze | Tomokazu Harimoto | Japan |
| Medal | Men’s team | Country |
| Gold | Fan Zhendong Wang Chuqin Ma Long | China |
| Silver | Jang Woo-jin Lim Jong-hoon Cho Dae-seong | South Korea |
| Bronze | Hiroto Shinozuka Shunsuke Togami Tomokazu Harimoto | Japan |
| Medal | Women’s singles | Country |
| Gold | Sun Yingsha | China |
| Silver | Chen Meng | China |
| Bronze | Wang Manyu | China |
| Medal | Women’s team | Country |
| Gold | Sun Yingsha Wang Manyu Chen Meng | China |
| Silver | Miwa Harimoto Hina Hayata Miu Hirano | Japan |
| Bronze | Chen Szu-yu Cheng I-ching Chien Tung-chuan | Taiwan |
| Medal | Mixed doubles | Country |
| Gold | Wang Chuqin Sun Yingsha | China |
| Silver | Hina Hayata Tomokazu Harimoto | Japan |
| Bronze | Wong Chun Ting Doo Hoi Kem | Hong Kong |
Projected medal count:
| Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| China | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| Japan | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| South Korea | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Hong Kong | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Taiwan | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Tommy A. Phillips 