There’s no gold medal I want more each Olympics than the men’s one. When the USA men won it in Tokyo, I was beyond elated. Why? Because this is a thankless job the men do. They are expected to win gold, and if they don’t, they get ridiculed at home. Only gold is enough, which brings us back to the purpose of this site. When gold medals are the “ahem” *gold* standard, that’s the only thing that’s going to satisfy both me and all NBA fans.
Tokyo 2020 results:
| Medal | Men (5×5) |
| Gold | United States |
| Silver | France |
| Bronze | Australia |
| Medal | Women (5×5) |
| Gold | United States |
| Silver | Japan |
| Bronze | France |
| Medal | Men (3×3) |
| Gold | Latvia |
| Silver | Russia |
| Bronze | Serbia |
| Medal | Women (3×3) |
| Gold | United States |
| Silver | Russia |
| Bronze | China |
Men’s outlook (June 10, 2023):
1936. 1948. 1952. 1956. 1960. 1964. 1968. 1972*. 1976. 1984. 1992. 1996. 2000. 2008. 2012. 2016. 2020.
That’s the list of gold medals by the USA men. Quite frankly, that’s not enough, in my mind. They were robbed in 1972 by corrupt Cold War referees and officials. That’s why I list 1972 amongst their victories.
Unless the USA men either don’t qualify (very unlikely) or end up with a bunch of injuries that waters down the roster (very possible), then USA will be the favorite in Paris. However, France is extremely dangerous. They beat USA in their first game in Tokyo, before losing the gold-medal game to them. And with Victor Wembanyama on the rise, I’d pencil France into that gold medal game right now. Obviously, things could shake out funny in the bracket, and USA and France could meet in the semifinals, but right now it’s a two-team race for gold.
As for bronze, it’s either Luka Doncic for Slovenia or Nikola Jokic for Serbia. Spain and Australia will remain contenders too, but I’m betting on the Doncic-Jokic duo to get into the bronze-medal game.
Projection:
| Medal | Country |
| Gold | United States |
| Silver | France |
| Bronze | Serbia |
Women’s outlook (June 10, 2023):
The USA women haven’t lost since 1992. I mean, period. Not just lose the gold medal. They haven’t lost a single game since 1992, when they took home the bronze. And with the rise of the WNBA and the renewed interest in the women’s game, it’s hard for me to see anyone else winning gold, or even beating USA once.
As for other medals, France won bronze in Tokyo. I say the home-court advantage boosts them to another medal. Japan won silver at home, for example. Spain and Serbia both went 3-0 in the group stage last time, but neither medaled. I’m going with one of them as the third-place finisher.
Projection:
| Medal | Country |
| Gold | United States |
| Silver | France |
| Bronze | Spain |
3×3 outlook (June 10, 2023):
The USA’s two teams lost a combined two games in the FIBA 3×3 World Cup. That sounds good for future competition. Man, just put LeBron James on a 3×3 team and you’ve got an automatic gold medal! Seriously, why not? In any case, I’m very bullish on USA’s basketball chances. This is one where I can see the USA completely sweeping all four basketball gold medals… which might be a necessity to win the golds race over China.
Men’s 3×3 Projection:
| Medal | Country |
| Gold | United States |
| Silver | Serbia |
| Bronze | Netherlands |
Women’s 3×3 Projection:
| Medal | Country |
| Gold | United States |
| Silver | France |
| Bronze | China |
Overall medal count:
| Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
| United States | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| France | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Serbia | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| China | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Netherlands | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Spain | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Tommy A. Phillips 