Golf

Golf is probably my favorite sport played at the Olympics, because it’s my second-favorite sport behind American football. I love the stroke play format they have; I’m not a fan of match play except during the Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup.

I just wish there was a team aspect of it. The trouble with the team aspect is that you’d have to invite about double the golfers they have now in order to fill out teams. USA would have its team full in no time, but who’s going to compete with them? In order to get four-player teams from enough countries, you’d have to go close to 200 spots down in the world rankings. Two-player teams would be the route to go, even though you’d still have to go pretty far down the world ranking list.

Tokyo 2020 results:

Medal	Men	Country
Gold	Xander Schauffele	United States
Silver	Rory Sabbatini	Slovakia
Bronze	Pan Cheng-tsung	Taiwan
Medal	Women	Country
Gold	Nelly Korda	United States
Silver	Mone Inami	Japan
Bronze	Lydia Ko	New Zealand

Men’s outlook (as of June 10, 2023):

Obviously, a lot has changed in golf over the last two years – scratch that, two weeks. But one thing is the same for the men – gold medalist Xander Schauffele remains in the top 10 and would be invited back to the Olympics. If he can stay there, he’s a huge threat to win it all.

Scottie Scheffler is as of this writing the top golfer in the world, though that could change at any moment. He would make it in as one of four USA golfers in the top 10: himself, Patrick Cantlay, Schauffele, and… Max Homa? How the heck did he get in there? He’s never won anything of consequence! I fully expect someone to replace him. Jordan Spieth if he can stay healthy, Tony Finau if he can win, Brooks Koepka if he’s able to get world ranking points on the LIV Tour, maybe even Justin Thomas… that top four is going to look a whole lot different a year from now. (Update, June 24, 2024: It does.)

Other world contenders include Spain’s Jon Rahm, (Northern) Ireland’s Rory McIlroy, Norway’s Viktor Hovland, Great Britain’s Matt Fitzpatrick, and Australia’s Cameron Smith. But that’s all you’ve got in the top 10, and six USA golfers beating down the door right below them.

Rory Sabbatini and C.T. Pan won’t repeat as medalists. Their wins were sort of flukes; yes, they deserved the medals, but they are so low in the world rankings (outside the top 100) that they can easily be dismissed.

Can Schauffele repeat? Or another American? Well, if the USA has 10 guys in the top 16, and four going to the Olympics, I’m going to go out on a limb and say they do well. The Americans have quadruple as many top-10 players as everyone else; that means they’ve got four times the chances at a gold.

UPDATE (As of June 24, 2023)

Things have changed, a bit. Jon Rahm, my original pick for silver, has fallen off a cliff thanks mainly to his defection to LIV Golf. And Patrick Cantlay didn’t make the team, my original pick for bronze. But Scottie Scheffler remains the best golfer in the world. Behind him? I’m going for a bit of sentimentality for silver. Rory McIlroy gets it, and Xander Schauffele finishes a great season with a bronze.

Projection:

Medal	Player	Country
Gold	Scottie Scheffler	United States
Silver	Rory McIlroy	Ireland
Bronze	Xander Schauffele	United States

Women’s outlook (as of June 10, 2023):

The “Ko’s” have it! South Korea’s Jin Young Ko and New Zealand’s Lydia Ko are both in the top three in the world rankings. In between them is defending gold medalist Nelly Korda. How do we figure these players out?

Let’s start with Korda. She’s one of my favorite woman golfers. Unfortunately she’s had trouble with blood clots. It’s too difficult to predict whether she’d be ready in 2024. For her sake, I hope she heals and gets better; and after all, she’s already got a gold anyway.

As for the “Ko’s,” Jin Young has the top spot as of now and the best chance at winning gold in Paris. But Lydia has won a silver and a bronze at the first two women’s golf events at the Olympics since 1900. There’s reason to believe she’s hungry to finally stand on top of that podium.

Two or three years ago, you’d find so many South Korean players at the top that it would be almost impossible to decide which ones would go to the Games. But now, you have to go all the way down to 24 to get Korea’s fourth-ranked golfer. Of course, that’s impressive, but not as dominating as the American men are.

Other contenders include Australia’s Minjee Lee, who’s been great recently, USA’s Lexi Thompson, who’s had trouble closing out major championships, and Canada’s Brooke Henderson, another star. But there’s one who is perhaps the biggest threat at a medal who isn’t even in the top 50 (yet): USA’s Rose Zhang. She won her first tournament as a pro, something not accomplished since 1951. She may be way down the rankings now, but just give her a season and see if she doesn’t take the world by storm. Projecting her performance is hard, though, as she’s not in the top four Americans yet. I’m going to leave her out of the top three… for now.

UPDATE (As of June 24, 2024)

Nelly Korda of the USA has become the greatest player in the world over the past year. She won five consecutive events that she entered at one point, including a major. She’s eclipsed pretty much everyone else, including Lilia Vu, who won a pair of majors last year. Meanwhile, the Ko’s haven’t been in good form. Oh, and there’s Rose Zhang, who I’ll be fully behind, but who I predict to miss the podium.

Medal	Player	Country
Gold	Nelly Korda	United States
Silver	Lilia Vu	United States
Bronze	Minjee Lee	Australia

Country	Gold	Silver	Bronze	Total
United States	2	1	1	2
Ireland	0	1	0	1
Australia	0	0	1	1